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Posted By
: S.K.SAGAR
surendraksagar@hotmail.com
17/07/2013

EVALUATING TIME FORM RATING FURTHER SIMPLIFIED AND EXPLAINED

   

                    PROCEDURE FOR EVALUATING TIME FORM RATING

                               (FOR BANGALORE, PUNE AND MUMBAI)

                                    (Further simplified and explained)

PREPARE AN EXCEL SHEET WITH THE COLUMNS IN THE FOLLOWING ORDER:

 

S.N.,   NAME OF HORSE,   RACE NO:,    CENTRE    DISTANCE(Ds),   WEIGHT(W),    ACTUAL TIMING (Ta),   FACTOR(Tp),    FACTOR(Tt),

NORMALIZED TIME (Tn =Ta*Tp*Tt),   TIMING (T FOR TFR 150),

DIFFERENTIAL TIMING (Td = T – Tn),

TIMEFORM RATING = 2.22 + 30  - 22222*Td/Ds.

 

NOTE : Weight W is in KGs, Timings are in Seconds, Distances are in Metres, Ratings are in lbs.

 

EXPLAINATION:

1)    Factor Tp corresponds to adjustment required to take care of the short term Track characterestics pertaining to the track conditions on the day of racing  ie whether good going, firm, soft or heavy going  etc given by the penetrometer reading of the day. If the going is perfect, a perfect horse with a Time Form rating of 150, running on  a straight and   level track, would cover 1090 metres per minute. If the track conditions are not perfect it will cover less distance  (Say `D` distance less than 1090), Which means the horse will cover only `1090 – D` in one minute..and therefore will take a longer time to cover 1090 Metres. Accordingly, if the Ground condition was perfect, the time taken to cover the distance Ds would have been = Ta*Tp where Tp is given by : Tp = (1090 – D)/1090.

I have further simplified by working out the values for the factor Tp for only Seven  cases ie for seven different ranges of PNR values. Further, on consideration that the PNR values are usually taken in the mornings and there is some recovery during daytime, especially if dry weather prevails prior to the actual race, I have reduced the impact on `D` value particularly for Heavy going cases.

With all this the factor Tp values are given below  for all three centres ie Bangalore, Mumbai, Pune.

 

 

PNR RANGE        GOING           BANGALORE            MUMBAI/PUNE

                                                      `D`         Tp               `D`           `Tp`

 

   < 3                   Perfect               nil        1.0              nil          1.0                          

3    to   3.5        Good                    4      0.996              2          0.998

3.6   to 4.0        Good to soft       7     0.9935            4        0.996

4.1   to   4.5      Soft                      14    0 .987             7        0.9935

 4.6  to  5.0       Heavy                 25     0.977            14       0.987

 5.0 to 5.5         very heavy         38    0.965             22       0.980

  > 5.5                 Yielding            52      0.952             30        0.972

 

 

2)    FACTOR Tt corresponds to the adjustment required to take care of the long term track characterstics pertaining to the geometric layout of the track which includes curves, gradients, undulations etc. On a perfect track with no curves, undulations etc ie a straight and level track a perfect horse with TFR of 150 carrying 54.5 kgs will cover 1090 metres in one minute. Hence, considering the geometrics of a track , its long term track index `Ti` is first determined for various distances. This value is usually less than 1090.  Thus if the track had been perfectly level, the timing would have been less in the ratio Ti/1090. Accordingly Factor Tt is  worked out as = Ti/1090. Tt values are worked out below for the three centres:

 

DISTANCE         BANGALORE              MUMBAI           PUNE

                           `Ti`        Tt                    `Ti`      `Tt`          `Ti`      `Tt`

  1000                                      1080   0.991   1060  0.9725                  

  1100           1048   0.962                                     

  1200           1055   0.968         1080   0.991     1100   1.009

  1400           1066   0.978         1075   0.986     1070   0.982

  1600           1077  0.988          1090   1.0        1065    0.977

  1800            1082  0.993         1090   1.0         1075   0.986                                      

  2000           1077   0.988         1090   1.0         1090   1.0

  2400           1072  0.983          1090   1.0         1090   1.0

  2800           1066  0.978          1090   1.0         1080   0.991

  3000           1048    0.962        1085   0.995      1075   0.986

  3200                                      1082   0.993      1070   0.982

 

3)   FACTOR Tn which is the normalized time is then worked out as equal to the actual time `Ta` multiplied by the Factor `Tp` and the factor `Tt`.

ie Tn = Ta*Tp*Tt

 

4)   DIFFERENTIAL TIME Td is worked out as the extent by which the normalized time `Tn` is slower than the perfect time `T` taken by a perfect horse having a time form rating of 150 when carrying an impost of 54.5 Kgs (120 lbs) to cover the distance Ds when the track conditions are perfect.

Hence Td is worked out as  = Tn – T

 

5)   Values of perfect time `T` for various distances are given below:

 

 

DISTANCE                     TIME `T`

 

1000                                54.7

1200                                66.4

1400                                78.4

1600                                90.7

1800                              103.2

2000                              115.9

 2200                               128.8

 2400                              142.0

 2800                               169.0

 3000                               182.8

 3200                               196.7




6)   TIME FORM RATING IS THEN GIVEN BY THE FORMULA:


TFR = 2.22*W + 30 – 22222*Td/Ds


7)   EXPLAINATION FOR THE ABOVE FORMULA:

THE FIRST PART ie (2.22*W + 30) :


If a perfect horse carrying 54.5 Kgs (120lbs) weight gives a performance that gets a rating of 150 on the TF Scale, then another horse who carries less weight ..say 50kgs and gives a similar performance will obviously have a rating = 150 – (54.5 -50)*2.22

 = 150 – 9.99 = 140.01 say 140, ie 2.22*50 + 30 =  140



Likewise a horse carrying a higher weight say 57 kgs and giving a similar performance would have a higher rating = 57*2.22 + 30 = 156.5 points

 

THE SECOND PART ie (22222*Td/Ds)

 

Now if the performance is worse than that of a perfect horse, it is obvious that the rating will be less. Asumme that the distance of the race is 1400metres and the normalized timing is slower then the perfect horse timing by one second. As each Kg weight differential results in a slowing down of time by 0.14secs (for 1400 metres distance) , accordingly the rating differential for a 1 second time difference will be 1.0/0.14 kg, and  if we are to convert this from kgs to lbs, we need to multiply by 2.22 ( as 1 kg =2.22lbs). Hence the difference in rating will be  = 1.0*2.22/0.14, multiply the numerater and the denominator by 10000, and we get the difference in rating as = 1.0*10000*2.22/(0.14*10000) which is = 22222*1.0/1400

Now if the distance is Ds (instead of 1400) and the time differential as Td(instead of 1.0 sec, then it is obvious that the extent to which the rating needs to be reduced = 22222*Td/Ds which is the same as the second part.

 

8)   EXAMPLE:

 

Determine the time form rating of Alaindair in the recently run Kingfisher Bangalore Derby;

W = 57kg, distance Ds = 2000m, Actual time Ta = 127.51 seconds.Penetrometer reading  = 5.4, hence Tp value for Bangalore =0.967, Long term track index Ti for Bangalore for 2000m may be read as 1077m for which the Factor Tt = 0.988. Accordingly the normalized time Tn = Ta*Tp *Tt = 127.51*0.965*0.988 = 121.57 sec.

Perfect time `T` for a TFR rating of 150 for 2000m  = 115.9secs.

Hence time didderential Td = 121.57 -115.9 seconds = 5.67secs.

Accordingly TF Rating of Alaindair – as per his derby performance – is worked out as equal to 2.22*57 +30 – 22222*5.67/2000 =156.54 – 63.00 = 93.54 say 93.

 

9)   DISCUSSIONS:

 

The time form ratings determined as per this system, tell us the  minimum potential of the horse on that day and on that particular distance travelled. His actual potential might be a bit more than that depending upon the quantum of reserve – unutilized – potential attributed to the horse ..in turn depending upon the extent to which the horse was pushed ..ie ridden out or eased up etc..or whether it was a fast run race or a slow run race. Here, we use our intuition for this purpose and it is here that our judgement/expertise matters. In my view Alaindair set his own pace in a start to finish effort..and if another horse had set a faster pace with Alaindair lying a handy third or fourth, he may have cut a  slightly faster timing while catching up with the leaders. With this I put him at 95 on the TFR scale which on the Indian rating system is about  114(95 *1.2).On the other hand the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd ie Turf Striker and Charlatan probably ran to their full potential and can be allotted TF Ratings of 92 and 87 respectively as can be worked out from the formula.Most of the others who finished way behind may have eased out substantially and it may not be appropriate to work out their ratings from this race as it will not give a correct picture.

 

The more the `fast run` race (applicable for that class), the greater is the accuracy of the rating of the horse determined as per this system. Hence for this purpose only a select few really fast run races should be considered for the purpose of evaluating TFRs.For the remaining cases the TFRs may be worked out by comparison studies only..and for that matter the closer the finish the more accurate the ratings.Horses outside the frame (the first four) should ordinarily not be selected for obtaining their ratings except to guage an upper limit for them.

 

Thus slow run races should not be used for calculating TFRs.. Now how do we determine if a certain race is slow or fast …according to that particular class?  For this purpose the fractional timings are quite useful. For example if the fractional timings (of say every 200m or so) reveal one or more fractions as deviating substantially..more than say 10 percent from the mean value of all the fractions..then it is obvious the race is a Slow run race.

 

It goes without saying that each and every horse has a pet distance for which it is at its best. Thus every horse will have a different rating for each distance category.

 

It also goes without saying that there is no guarantee that a horse will always run to its true potential…it all depends on its form and fitness…and the caliber of the jockeys that ride it…not to mention the draw number.. and various other factors..not forgetting the luck factor.

 

And last but not the least …it should be born in mind that the values considered  by me for the various  parameters ..viz the Tp values and Ti values are predominantly by  intuition, based on my own judgement and based on the limited inputs available to me with regard to the track characterestics of the various tracks. By no means they can be considered as 100 % reliable and authentic. The Science is deep and the available data is limited. If it is felt …and if I am convinced that I need to revise some of these values..I`ll gladly do so…I have an open mind.

 

Good luck