The key to calculate the winning chance of a horse on weights in a handicap race is to take into account the ratings of the horses which represent their ability and then factor in the effect of actual weights carried by them with a comparative weight handicapping system on a constant scale of rating related weights.
Basically all the ratings and the rating related weights are normally synchronized to the highest weight carried in a race since the rating related class and the weights as related to ratings on a constant scale of rating related weights have an inverse relationship in a comparative weight handicapping system for weight differentials equalizes them at all points.
So although horse A with a rating of 110 is 5 points better than B running with a rating of 105 they are equal at their relative rating related weights of 65.0 kilos and 62.5 kilos corresponding to their individual ratings on a constant scale of rating related weights because A has to carry 2.5 kilos or 5 points more in weight where each point is equal to half of a kilo or 0.5 kilos.
Therefore add 2.5 kilos or 5 points to the rating of horse B to come up with a rating that takes into account the effect of weights assigned for equalizing the ability and similarly work out the figures for all other horses down the line in the field.
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
Horse |
Rating |
Weight
(kilos) |
Rating of A
(-) others |
Difference In Rating as in 4 |
Your Own Rating based on the last or previous best race and the difference between previous best and your own rating |
Comparative Weight Rating |
Rank |
A |
110 |
65.0 |
110-110 |
+ 0 |
110-4-3+0+0 = 103 /-7 |
103+0+5=108 |
4 |
B |
105 |
62.5 |
110-105 |
+ 5 |
105+0+4+4-0 = 113 /+8 |
113 +5 =118 |
2 |
C |
101 |
60.5 |
110-101 |
+ 9 |
101-4-3+14+0 = 108 /+7 |
108 +9 =117 |
3 |
D |
99 |
59.5 |
110-99 |
+11 |
92+19-4+ 2+0= 109/+17 |
109+11=120 |
1 |
E |
93 |
56.5 |
110-93 |
+17 |
88+1-4+0+0+0= 85p/-3 |
85p+17=102 |
5 |
Key:
1. Names of Horses.
2. Handicappers Ratings of the Horses.
3. Weights assigned by the handicapper as related to ratings.
4. Rating of the highest rated horse entered in the race minus the individual ratings of all other horses down the line that equalizes the ratings of all horses.
5. Difference between the ratings of the highest rated horse entered in the race and other horses in the race that represent the weight advantage of each horse derived in ratings.
6. Your own ratings are based on handicappers ratings in its last race or in its previous best race plus/minus ratings adjusted by you on your own assessment of the performances of the horses and their potential abilities shown in that race and in subsequent races as is perceived by you.
The pedigree, age, current condition, class ratings, the rating related weights and the actual weights carried by them minus over weights of jockeys or plus weight allowances claimed by the jockeys and the value of beaten lengths from the bench mark horse are all taken into consideration. Besides these fundamentals, the distance of the race, the texture of racing strip, the pace of the race, the fractional times and the final time recorded by the horses for that race, are also taken into consideration, which together demonstrates the potential ability of the horses to win at a particular distance and their suitability to other distances in terms of speed and class of acceleration established over the final part of 600 or 400 meters of a race.
7. Comparative weight ratings based on your own ratings as calculated in column 6 plus the difference in ratings of the horses as in column 5 minus overweight carried by the riders or plus allowances claimed by the riders.
8. Ranking of Horses based on comparative weight ratings with the highest figure representing the best in the field on weights and followed by others in the descending order in that order. However remember just because a horse has the highest rating does not make it a sure shot for it must qualify on other factors.
Courtesy: Spot the Winner with Success