The
individual ratings of all the horses that ran in race are revised post race
based on the assessment of their individual performances as is perceived by the
handicapper in order to equalize the chances of all horses in their next.
The
fundamental basis of form is focused around weight. Weight Ratings are
precisely designed to represent a horse’s potential ability. These ratings do
not take into account a horses ability on the ground at any particular race but
are reflections of overall recent form of the horses.
And one must
admit that young horses grows from the age of two to five every month with age
and their ability to run faster with more speed at shorter distances grows but
the abilities to carry the weights with the same speed diminishes as distances
gets longer and longer even if their stamina improves to run at such distances.
Therefore
the scale of weight for age distance and class must be taken into consideration
while fixing the ratings for various age groups in the Rating Related Scale of
weights for Handicap races, even if the transparent conditions and the rules of
racing fails to explicitly specify so, and thereafter while assessing the
performance of the horses post race and equalizing their chances in their next
because the rating related scale of weights itself is framed based on that
hidden scale.
Scale of Weights for Age, Distance and Class for
Indian Horses is the base scale of individual Ratings of all horses and the
Scale of Rating Related Weights for Handicap Races
For Distances of 1200 Metres and (-) Under
Age
Jan Feb
Mar April May
June July Aug
Sept Oct Nov
Dec
6yrs
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
5yrs
57.5 57.5 57.5
57.5 57.5
57.5 58.0 58.0 58.0
58.0 58.5 58.5
4yrs
54.5 55.0
55.0 55.5 56.0
56.0 56.0 56.0 56.5
56.5 57.0
57.5
3yrs
44.5 45.5 46.5
47.0 47.5
48.0 49.0 50.0 50.5
51.0 51.5
52.0
For Distances over (+) 1200+ Metres and not more than
Distances of 1600
Age
Jan Feb
Mar April May
June July Aug
Sept Oct
Nov Dec
6yrs
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
5yrs
57.0 57.0 57.0
57.0 57.0 57.5
57.5 57.5 57.5 58.0 58.0
58.5
4yrs
51.5 53.0 54.0
54.5 54.5 55.0
55.0 55.0 55.5 56.0
56.0 56.5
3yrs
41.5 42.5 43.5
44.5 45.5 46.5
47.0 47.5 48.0 48.5
49.5 51.0
For Distances over (+)1600+ Metres and less than
(-)2400 Metres (-)
Age
Jan Feb
Mar April May
June July Aug Sept
Oct Nov Dec
6yrs
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5
5yrs
56.5 56.5
56.5 57.0
57.0 57.0 57.5 57.5
57.5 57.5
58.0 58.5
4yrs
51.0 51.5 52.5
53.0 53.5 54.0
54.0 54.0 54.5
54.5 55.5 56.0
3yrs
39.5 40.5 41.5
42.0 43.0 44.0
45.0 46.0 46.5 47.5
48.5 50.0
For Distances of 2400 Metres and less than (-) 3200
Metres
Age
Jan Feb
Mar April May
June July Aug
Sept Oct
Nov Dec
6yrs
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5
5yrs
55.0 55.5 56.0 56.0
56.0 56.0 56.5 56.5
56.5 56.5
57.0 58.0
4yrs
47.5 48.5 49.5
50.5 51.0 51.0
51.5 52.0 52.5 53.0 53.5
54.5
3yrs
36.0 37.0 38.0
39.0 41.0 41.0
41.5 42.5 43.5
44.5 45.5
46.5
For Distances of 3200 Metres and over
Age
Jan Feb
Mar April May
June July Aug Sept
Oct Nov Dec
6yrs
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
58.5 58.5 58.5
5yrs
53.5 54.0 54.5
55.0 55.5 55.5
56.0 56.0 56.0 56.0
57.0 58.0
4yrs
44.0 45.0 46.0
46.5 47.5 48.0
48.5 49.5 50.5
51.0 52.0 53.0
3yrs
32.0 33.5 34.5
35.5 36.5 37.0
38.0 39.0 40.0 41.0
41.5 43.0
Handicap
races revolve around weights carried by the horses in relation to their
individual ratings which represent their potential abilities and the weight
differences between the horses on a constant scale of rating related class and
weights for handicap races that which is adjusted by the handicapper on receipt
of entries for a handicap race as is specified in the rules of racing in all
handicap races.
While the
official handicapper is given the free hand in his assessment of the
performances of the horses and their potential abilities to equalize their
chances in their next at his best, the quantum of increase and decrease in the
weight ratings of the horses on a constant scale of rating related class and
weight for handicap races, however, depends upon the policy and the guidelines
prescribed by the stewards of the racing clubs, for they have to cater to the
local needs.
Two year old
horses that generally start racing in November of a calendar year and won at
least once or ran at least thrice anywhere are allotted a rating based on their
performances on the first of January next when they turn three year old horses
every new calendar year. The starter ratings for un raced two year old horses
that turn three year old horses are also fixed on the first of January every
new calendar year which generally continues to be the same as in November last
when they started racing as a two year old though such horses grow by three
four kilos by then.
And
thereafter the same is revised at the beginning of every new racing season
based on the time of the year or as and when the three year old maiden horses
are permitted to run in handicap races. Sometimes handicap races for horses
that turned three year olds in January last are framed from the month of March
of a calendar year in their own age group and therefore their ratings are
published prior to that.
The
significance of raising the ratings and the rating related weights of the
horses that won or finished close to the winner of a race is only to equalize
the chances of all horses that ran in that race in their next with their
comparative performances and potential abilities shown in that race.
Such
additional weights may affect only the running time of the horses that are
penalized for winning the race or running close to the winner of that race as
good second, third or fourth gaining lengths but in no way nullify their class
and condition. While other horses that ran in that race if they have reached
their winning mark may show up in equal measure or better and that confirms how
well they are handicapped.
In other
words, the weight concessions given to inferior horses and the weight penalties
imposed on better horses do not always cancel the more fundamental factors like
pedigree, age, distance, class, condition, pace and jockey in the running of a
race. It is more so when the actual weights carried by the horses in relation
to their ratings on a handicap scale of rating related weights is more or less
close to their pivotal weights on the scale.
It is
continuous exercise that attempts to eliminate the weight differentials as a
decisive factor in the outcome of a race as the weights for handicap races are
allotted as related to their ratings on a constant scale of rating related
weights and adjusted by the handicapper as per the rules of racing.
The revised
ratings of the horses are known after a run in a race and the likely weights
that may be allotted to a horse in a given handicap scale is known instantly.
It is very much helpful to trainers, owners and professionals in preparing
their horses for a race and to enter them accordingly and it also helps in
making the work of the handicappers easy.
The dictum
is higher the rating of a horse the better the horse on ratings and higher the
figure on comparative weight ratings the better the horse on weights on a
constant scale of rating related weights and that shall help explain the
success of comparative weight handicapping systems.
In other
words, Pedigree, Age, Distance, class, condition, pace and jockey invariably
are so decisive in the running of a race that the effects of small differences
in weight become less and less exact in the final outcome of most races than
that of the rating related handicap weight formulas that claims to attempt
constantly to equalize the chances of all horses in a race.
Also many
times handicap races are framed both for the same age groups and for combined
age groups like 3 years old & over, 4 years old & over 5 years old
& over and six years and over and therein lies the exact weight differences
between the age group of 3 year olds, 4 year olds, 5 year olds and 6 year olds
and up on a constant scale of rating related weights for handicap races.
In such
races the ratings related weights of all horses may generally be raised or
lowered above the rating related weights specified in the constant scale of
weights for all horses and that may be based on the scale of weights for age,
class and the distances specified in the rules of racing before weights are
adjusted to meet the criteria of lowest minimum top weight.
Since the
scale of weights for age distance and class for all the months of a calendar
year is published in the rules of racing even if they are not published under
every race in the race card which they must ordinarily do as a measure of
transparency for the benefit of all racing patrons and also to avoid
manipulation by vested interests, it is easy to find the base weights of all
age groups and the differences between different age groups and the penalties of
each horse as related to their age distance and class in every handicap race.
Take the
assigned weights of each horse as related to their ratings for handicap races
and deduct from that the specified weight of each horse in the monthly weights
scale of age distance and class.
If the
assigned is more than the weight for the age and distance then deduct the
difference in terms of ratings from the handicap rating of each horse and
if it is less add to the rating of each horse and the figure you have derived
is current base rating of each horse of their age group and the difference
between the base rating and current rating is penalty in terms of ratings or
drop in rating of each horse of that age group based on the weight scale for
age distance and class on the that date of their racing and it is easy to
compare their potential ability based on their past performances and the
benefits will be enlightening and enormous if wisdom prevails.
As such
everyone should have his own technique of assigning a rating to every horse and
calculate the chances of every horse on weights on a constant scale of rating
related weights in a race with a comparative weight handicapping system based
on weights for age, class and distance even if it is just to know why the market
at the book makers betting ring looks so wrong according to your figures.
Also every
one must be alert to the attitude of those who intentionally fails merit rating
system horses and abhor the norm of why fight a battle to win when the winning
brings no financial benefits or fame and ensures the victory of another chosen
horse for the sake of money or fame.
An easy
method for spot play will be to take the rating of the top weight in the
current race and find the rating related weight of the highest rating of that
rating related class band of that race and treat the same as the rating and
rating related weight of all the horses in that race.
Then find
the difference between the individual rating of every horse of that race and
that of the rating of their last race or the previous best race. And if the
rating of the previous best race is more than the rating of the given race add
the difference in rating to the individual ratings of the horses in today’s
race and if the rating of its last race or the previous best race is less than
that of the rating of the given race then deduct the difference in ratings from
the individual ratings of the horses in today’s race.
This in
effect eliminates the adjustment of the ratings by the handicapper in terms of
ratings as the figures so arrived indicate the ratings of the horses in their
previous best race. However, these days race cards prints and provides the
same, as such ready information helps save the time of everyone in their spot
calculations.
Therefore,
add to that rating of the previous best race, your own additional ratings or
deduct the reduction of rating from that figure based on the assessment of the
performances of the horses as is assessed by you and that gives you your own
adjusted ratings of each horse in that race.
Thereafter
add the weight differences in terms of rating points between the top weight of
that class and the weights of all other horses down the line and the highest
figure so arrived indicates the best horse on ratings on top and others in
descending order in a comparative weight handicapping system.
Such horses
qualify for the best bet in that order on comparative weight ratings if they
qualify on all other fundamentals of handicapping besides the hidden scale of
weight for age and distance and class. Similarly same things can be done with
weights carried today and the result of both will be the same. And in the case
of a tie the horse with lighter rating related weights with lower ratings may
get the weight advantage.
Another easy
method for spot play will be to take the rating of the highest rated horse in
the field in a race and treat the same as the rating of all the horses in that
race. Then deduct the individual rating of every horse of that race from that
rating and then add the rating of its last race or the previous best race,
which in effect eliminates the adjustment of the ratings by the handicapper.
Thereafter
add to that figure your own additional ratings or deduct the reduction of
rating from that figure based on the assessment of the performances of the
horses as assessed by you. That gives you your own adjusted ratings of each
horse in that race.
Then add the
weight differences in terms of rating points between the top weight of that class
and the weights of all other horses down the line and the highest figure so
arrived indicates the best horse on top and others in descending order in a
comparative weight handicapping system.
Such horses
qualify for best bets on weights in that order in a comparative weight
handicapping system, if they qualify on all other fundamentals of handicapping
besides the hidden scale of weight for age and distance andclass.
Assume for
instance A and B are rated the same in a race of four horses field and if A
beat B gaining in the stretch run and at the finish in terms of lengths or
running position passing over other horses or both and won easily or won going
away A may be allowed to retain its former ratings and be given full credit for
that win.
And B may be
allowed to retain its former ratings for finishing second gaining in the
stretch and at the finish in terms of lengths or in terms of running position
passing over other horses or both and finishing close to the winner within
certain lengths and beating other horses down the line at the finish because
horses with same ratings are assumed to have the same ability.
If A won
gaining in the stretch run only because B finished tired in the stretch run, A
may retain its former rating and be given full credit for winning the race and
B may be dropped in the ratings for being beaten decisively or ran in such a
way suggesting a decline in condition.
In a truly
run race, by the same reasoning, if each of the first three finishers went into
the race with the same rating in the field of eight horses, the winner would
retain its former rating and get full credit for gaining in the stretch and at
the finish and winning the race.
The ratings
of second and third finishing horses are reevaluated and if it was a close
finish and the two horses ran extremely well they might retain their ratings
and be reevaluated on the basis of their performances.
The horse
that ran third may retain its ratings for finishing third within certain number
of lengths of the winning horse and the horse that finished as second may be
revaluated for gaining and finishing close to the winner for gains in the stretch
and at the finish in terms lengths or in terms of running position passing over
other horses or both and finishing within certain number of lengths from the
winner but not on the basis of beaten lengths.
Other horses
that ran true to their form and finished unplaced as fourth or worse than
fourth may be dropped suitably by a few points. Sometimes the ratings of the
horse that finished third is dropped depending upon the assessment of the kind
of finish efforts made by that horse.
A length of
a horse, though it varies, is generally assumed to be equivalent to 16 parts of
a second where a second is a measure of 100 equality divided parts of one
second or 160 parts of a second where a second is a measure of 1000 equally
divided parts of a second and one second in turn is considered as equivalent to
6 1/4 lengths of a horse.
Therefore
the beaten length of a horse is considered as equivalent to 1 Kilo or 2 points
of half of a kilo each and 6 1/4 lengths of a horse in turn is considered as
equivalent to 6.25 kilos and in turn is equal to one second.
For example,
Horse A and Horse B ran in a race of 1600 meters both carrying the same weight.
Horse A decisively beats Horse B by 2 lengths. Horse A therefore puts up a
performance superior to Horse B by 2 lengths. The difference of 2 lengths is
the equivalent of 2.00 kilos or roughly 4 points of 1/2 of a kilo each.
Now, if the
ratings ‘before’ and ‘after’ the race were not the same, how should they be
adjusted, if it is to be adjusted. To make that decision the handicapper looks
at the ratings of ALL horses in the race and not just the ratings of A and B.
The task of the handicapper is to adjust the ratings.
For that the
handicapper first looks at the Ratings as they were before the race. He checks
was Horse A’s Rating beforehand also 4 points higher than the one of Horse B.
Chances are it won’t be exactly the same, but it should be close.
And then
normally he will look for the performance of a horse that finished within a few
lengths or certain lengths of the winner and whose recent form has been
consistent and reliable. That becomes his KEY LINE HORSE, the horse whose
rating is used as a benchmark rating.
A good
example of this is the performance of Horse A when he beat Horse B over
1600meters. In the panel discussion one member was highly vocal about the fact
that he did not think that Horse A had been properly ‘penalised’ based on his
potential abilities, and that he should have had his rating increased by eight
points instead of the two points the handicapper raised his rating by.
If the
reasoning of taking a line through Horse B is used, then A’s rating should have
been increased to at least the level of Horse B’s rating. That’s what the race
showed. If Horse A’s rating is raised to that level, then the ratings for all
other runners in the same race must follow suit because they are, after all,
linked together through the lengths-behind-the-winner calculation.
In this case
it meant that not only A’s rating would have gone up dramatically but most of
the other runners in the race as well. Forget it. The only logical conclusion
was that Horse B ran below the potential best and should not be used as the key
HORSE.
The
handicapper therefore decided in this case, that the more likely candidate for
the Key Line Horse honours was third finisher Horse C. If Horse C ran to his
‘normal’ form, then most of the horses in the field appeared to do the same.
Horse ‘A’s rating increase was therefore based on beating Horse C, not on
beating Horse B and it is a sound decision.
If Horse C
also performed better and its ratings needs to be raised or retained then take
the fourth finisher D whose rating may be dropped followed by other whose
ratings may be retained or nominally dropped.
This example
illustrates what is probably the most common mistake made by us. We assume that
when a horse wins a race it must have its rating automatically increased, be
penalised. It is not correct. It all depends on the rating of the KEY BENCH
MARK LINE HORSE.
The winning
horse could well have won easily and run below his rating, in which case it
would be wrong to increase its rating. If a penalty for winning was given
automatically based on beaten lengths or final time recorded by the horses,
then it could be that several of the beaten horses might also have to go up,
because of their lengths-behind-the-winner relationship. That makes no sense.
In
handicapping there is no such thing as a penalty. It is only Re-assessment of
the performances of the horses to achieve optimum competitiveness. The purpose
of revision of ratings is to equalize the chances of all horses on a constant
scale of weights and that is the name of the game.
But no one
can be sure about the real effects of such weights on racehorses and whether
such weights do really equalize the chances of all horses that run in a
handicap race. If the handicapper is right all the horses running in a race
should finish in a line at the winning post of the race. If he has got it wrong
then there must be a way to work out their correct values from the beaten
lengths of the horses or the extra weight carried by them.
To find
that, compare the actual performances of all horses carrying less weight than
the weight of top weight horse against the actual performance of the top weight
horse in a race. And if there is more than one horse with top weight one must
choose the first in the line of horses top to down in that race.
A top
weighted horse must be a true top weight after deduction of jockeys allowance
if any and also after addition of penalties if any. Also one must throw out all
those horses that carry overweight, horses that fail to compete and horses that
are running out of handicap.
And from
among the others left in the field select the most weighted horse as the top
weight or Bench mark horse for calculating the beaten lengths of the other
horses from the top weight and then assign a weight value and a beaten length
value for each horse.
Weight value
of a horse is equal to the weight of each horse minus weight of top weight or
the bench mark horse for calculating the weight value of other horses. Beaten
lengths value of a horse is equal to beaten length of each horse minus beaten
length of the top weight or the bench mark horse and it is positive if the
bench mark horse is behind.
In other
words, weight rating of the horses that ran in a race will precisely show that
the weight does matter in handicap races and the ratings and the revised
ratings of the horses on a constant scale of rating related class and weights
used by the handicapper for assigning rating related weights in all handicap
races is pretty close to reality.
Also it will
show that the weight advantages towards the high weight horses are pretty much
less than the assumptions made by many players in the game.
Courtesy:
Spot The Winner With Success